Why Supply Chain Execution Will Decide Who Wins in Ecommerce in 2026

By Rob Hango-Zada, Co-Founder and Joint CEO of Shippit

Consumer expectations, global competition, economic uncertainty and industry-wide volatility are rapidly reshaping the delivery landscape. With four in five Aussies saying delivery influences where they shop, and two in three not returning to a brand after a poor delivery experience, the supply chain is no longer an operational process - it’s a growth lever.

The stakes will rise further in 2026. Amazon, Temu and Shein are forecast to command 36% of local ecommerce, establishing new benchmarks on price, range and speed. For supply chain leaders, the focus must be on how to adapt and optimise fulfilment and delivery without inflating cost, complexity or risk.

From fulfilment speed, carrier strategy and inventory visibility, to automation, AI, and returns, Shippit’s Commerce Delivery Report explores how supply chain leaders must evolve their fulfilment and delivery models to remain competitive.

1. Speed is Now an Fulfilment Problem, not a Transport One

Fast delivery has shifted from competitive advantage to baseline expectation. Retailers offering same- or next-day delivery generated 3.5-4% more orders during the Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend, while on-demand delivery has been linked to 3.5x higher spend per customer and 35% more orders.

Yet speed isn’t won on the road. The gap between the average delivery promise (5.2 days) and actual performance (1.7 days) points to a deeper issue: promise accuracy, inventory visibility and fulfilment execution. In 2026, the most effective supply chains will be those that treat fulfilment and pick and pack execution as growth levers, not afterthoughts.

2. Carrier Reliability is Improving, But Orchestration is the Advantage

Carrier performance continues to improve. During peak season, on-time delivery across major carriers improved from 90.5% to 93.7% (YoY). Reliability is no longer the differentiator it once was, though.

As Amazon lifts expectations, attention shifts to how effectively networks balance speed, cost, experience and flexibility. Rather than relying on a single carrier strategy or one-size-fits-all treatment of deliveries, optionality and flexibility are key. Leading brands are dynamically allocating orders across established, emerging and specialist carriers.

3. Stores Are Re-emerging as Critical Fulfilment Hubs

Stores are re-emerging as a core delivery advantage. In 2026, a clear performance gap is emerging between brands that can pick, pack, and dispatch orders from stores in minutes or hours, and those constrained by training gaps, inconsistent execution and poor fulfilment ‘culture’.

As delivery speed becomes a baseline expectation, fulfilment execution has emerged as the primary bottleneck. Retailers with strong store and warehouse discipline are consistently outperforming peers on both service and cost.

Treating stores as distributed fulfilment hubs requires more than technology. It demands clear accountability, operational standards and a culture that values fulfilment excellence just as much as in-store sales.

4. Automation Enters its Correction Phase as Process Takes Precedence

After years of investment, automation is entering a correction phase. Many businesses have learned that large-scale automation fails to deliver returns when layered onto fragmented inventory, broken processes or poor operational design. ‍

As capital tightens, automation for automation’s sake is losing favour. Instead, supply chain leaders are prioritising practical process improvements that deliver faster, more sustainable gains than larger and, often, more rigid technology deployments. For supply chain leaders, the key question is where does automation genuinely boost performance, and where does it simply add cost or accelerate inefficiency?

5. AI Will Divide the Field, Not Level it

‍While 62% of decision-makers cite AI as the biggest trend, its impact in 2026 will be uneven. AI will act as a divider between businesses that embed it across planning, inventory, fulfilment and delivery, and those running isolated pilots disconnected from core operations.

AI is moving rapidly from experimentation into day-to-day execution, for example in scenario planning, inventory management, delivery and fulfilment. Early adopters and those that scale AI into every-day decision-making will improve costs and performance.

6. Returns Are Being Re-Engineered as Closed-Loop Supply Chains

With 92% of consumers more likely to shop again after an easy return, they’ve long been a loyalty-driver. But the economics of returns were deemed unsustainable, with the volume of retailers offering easy or free returns falling from 97% to 58% and 49% to 14% respectively since 2018.

In 2026, leading brands will redesign returns as closed-loop systems. Tactics such as store credits, exchanges and in-store returns help preserve margin, recover inventory faster and keep value circulating within the network. Returns are no longer just a customer experience function, though; they’re a reverse logistics challenge with direct implications on costs, inventory management, and profitability.

7. Inventory Visibility Has Become Existential

Carrier speeds are faster than ever, but many retailers don’t know where inventory sits until after a purchase. This often leads to split shipments, missed delivery promises and margin erosion.

That means inventory visibility is no longer an IT issue; it’s a necessity for accurate delivery promises, efficient orchestration and cost control. Supply chain leaders that use data to tightly integrate stores and DCs will improve conversions, delivery predictability and unlock cost savings.

The reality is clear: 2026 will be a fight for relevance and revenue. Growth will be increasingly determined by execution. Supply chain success is dependent on fixing fulfilment, replacing guesswork with data, moving inventory closer to customers and building delivery networks designed for speed, resilience and scale. Those that do will be well-positioned not just to survive, but to grow.

To read the full report, visit: https://www.shippit.com/whitepapers-and-webinars/commerce-delivery-report-2026